Friday 16 November 2012

USD 47 billion worth Projex Shelved


According to the data released by ProjectsToday.com in India during the first six months of the current fiscal (April-September 2012) around 727 projects entailing a total project investment of Rs 254,280 crore (USD 47 billion) were shelved by their respective promoters. Last fiscal during the same period, 333 projects worth Rs 97,714 crore (USD 18 billion) were shelved.

Private companies, which are quick to shelve their unviable projects, dropped around 456 projects, while the government agencies accounted for the remaining non fructified projects.

Tuesday 13 November 2012

Not Ro-Ro, Rail on Lorry

The day will not be far off, if the Indian Railways fail to modernize their stocks (coaches, railway lines, signals, etc.), its coaches will have to be moved around by Indian Lorries, as shown in the below picture!

It is high time the Railway Board take up modernization program on priority basis and go slow on new projects. Railway Board many a times is forced to take up new lines/projects due to political pressure. These projects though economically unviable are taken up under the garb of socially desirable. As a result, most of the projects remain in papers for long.

According to ProjectsToday.com, as of 31 October 2012, there were 760 railway projects costing USD 85 billion. Indian Railways with a network of 63,974 km carry around 7 billion passengers and 833 million tonne of freight traffic every year.


Rail on Lorry, Indian Style!


 

Friday 14 September 2012

UPA II Coming Alive

After a long wait, the country saw some bold policy interventions from the UPA government today (14 Sept 2012). These measures came on top of yesterday's decision to hike the diesel price by Rs 5 and limit the subsidised LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) cylinders to six per year, per family.

To begin with, the government decided to revive the policy to allow 51 per cent FDI in multi-brand retail. The decision earlier passed in November 2011 was put on the back burner following stiff opposition from the allies. This time it has played safe by giving state governments right to implement the policy or not in their territories. The ruling Trinamool government in West Bengal was the first to say no to the policy. MNCs like WalMart of the USA, Carrefour of France and Metro of Germany are the major immediate beneficiaries.

Heeding to the long standing demand of a section of Indian private aviation sector, the Cabinet decided to allow foreign airlines to hold up to 49 per cent of the equity in Indian airline companies. Kingfisher and Spicejet are the immediate beneficiaries. Both are currently debt stressed.

The UPA government also raised the FDI limit from 49 per cent to 74 per cent in Broadcasting, Cable and Dish TV services.

Better late than never. To meet the PSU disinvestment target of Rs 30,000 crore set for the fiscal 2012-13, the Cabinet gave green signal to disinvest 10 per cent stake in Oil India, 9.59 per cent in Hindustan Copper, 12.15 per cent in NALCO and 9.33 per cent in MMTC. In all, the government hopes to garner around Rs 15,000 crore from the sale of equities. Last fiscal, it managed to raise only Rs 14,000 crore against the target figure of Rs 40,000 crore.

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) reacted with a bang 444 point rise (highest in the last 14 months) to the above measures. Expressing their satisfaction over the delayed reform measures, Indian industry captains wants the government to implement the same without any roll backs.

Sunday 9 September 2012

Indian Cement Industry - Victim of Policy Paralysis

Recently, the Union Minister of State for Commerce and Industry stated in the Parliament that the country would see a capacity addition of 13.5 million tonne during the fiscal 2012-13. As of March 2012, the combined cement manufacturing capacity stood at 336.10 million tonne. Despite of the low capacity addition, the total capacity is expected to outstrip the demand. The slowdown witnessed in infrastructure building process coupled with the industry specific problems are expected to curtail the projex activities in this sector in the next couple of years.

According to the latest information available with ProjectsToday.com (a database monitoring over 50,000 projects envisaged across India) of the 209 cement projects lined across the country as at the beginning of March 2012, nearly three-fourth of them are delayed considerably. Most of these projects where announced three to four years ago and were expected to be commissioned by March 2015.

While the delays in getting government clearances, mining leases and the required land are the prominent reasons for the time overruns seen in the delayed cement projects, the current economic slowdown, reduced spending in the real estate sector and the slow pick up in the infrastructure projects has also forced cement manufacturers to go slow on their capacity addition/expansion programmes.

As of March 2012, of the 209 cement projects nearly 153 projects entailing a total investment of around Rs 1,04,000 crore and an aggregate capacity of 293 million tpa (tonne per annum) were facing time overruns of over two years. As a result of the overall slowdown in project implementation, the country will see capacity addition of 80 million tpa during 2012-2015 as against 117 million tpa of capacity addition happened during 2008-2011.

During FY13, as per the information available with ProjectsToday around 26 cement projects with an aggregate capacity of 37.38 million tpa will fructify. Of this, cement projects of ABG, ACC, Birla Corp, Indian Cements, Jaiprakash Associates, Reliance Cementation projects are of large size.

Cement projects by States

The top five states – Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Rajasthan together accounted for 70 per cent of the total envisaged capacity addition and around 71 per cent of the total projex.

Cement Projects
Madhya Pradesh, which has the largest cement grade lime deposits in India, tops the state wise list with 39 projects having aggregate capacity of 81 million tpa. The limestone reserve in the state is estimated at 5,921 million tonne. Bhushan Steel, Emami Cements, Reliance Cementation, Sanghi Energy, Surya Global Cement and Visa Cement have lined up mega cement projects with capacities of 3 million tpa or more in the state.

The state also leads in terms of delayed cement projects. As of March 2012, 33 projects planned in the state are facing time overruns of over two years. Most of the projects for which MoU signed during the State’s Investor’s meet in 2010 have not reported much progress in implementation.

Tuesday 21 August 2012

Tales of Delayed Projects

The third week of August (12-18, 2012), saw a number of reports on project delays. The reasons cited for missing the deadlines were faulty planning, opposition from locals, non availability of equipment in time, liquidity crunch, etc.

It is now certain that India will not be able to meet the targeted addition of 1000 MW in the Solar power segment by May 2013. Though the government has managed to find private players to set up the targeted projects, the power developers are finding it difficult in executing those projects because of two main reasons – lack of enough ground stations to measure solar radiation and shortage of Heat Transfer Fluid (HTF) as there are only two suppliers of HTF globally.

It is also certain that the ambitious plans of the Union Ministry of Roadways and Transport to build 1,000 km of expressway at a cost of Rs 16,680 crore under Phase IV of the NHDP will not see making much head-way in the 12th Plan either. The Ministry intended to set up the expressways in the 11th Plan. The poor response NHAI is getting for its highway projects has made the ministry to go slow on its expressway projects. Despite all out efforts, NHAI has not managed to reach its goal of building 20 km of highways a day.

Paradeep Refinery has stated that its 15 million tonne refinery will miss the deadline of September 2012 at least by one year. Failure of BHEL to set up its captive power plant in time, non receipt of environment clearances for its jetty and delay in construction of pipelines and coastal roads because of land issues and opposition from locals has forced the company to revise the completion date of its Rs 30,000 crore project to September 2013.

Change in Tax rules and liquidity crunch has forced GVK Power to put two of its mega projects on the back-burner. The company has decided not to set up the proposed SEZ project in Tamil Nadu as the projex proposal has become unviable as SEZs now have to pay Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT). The company has also deferred its proposed Rs 7,000 crore greenfield seaport project at Okhamade in Gujarat. The company has failed to reduce its debt burden estimated at Rs 13,000 crore.

Sunday 12 August 2012

India - Population: 1.22 billion, 83 athletes & 6 Medals

The 2012 Summer Olympics, London, came to an end on 12 August 2012. Indian Olympic Association sent 83 athletes to participate in 13 different sports segments. Given the success we had tasted in the Beijing Olympics and in the recently held Commonwealth games, the expectations from Indian participants were very high. However, we ended with only six medal haul.

While the Indian Hockey team, the Tennis team, Vijender Singh (Boxing) and Abhinav Bindra (Shooting) disappointed us, the following SIX made India proud. We Salute them for their achievements!

Vijay Kumar, Shooting - Silver
Sushil Kumar, Wrestling - Silver
Mary Kom, Boxing - Bronze




Saina Nehwal, Badminton - Bronze
Gagan Narang, Shooting - Bronze
Yogeshwar Dutt, Wrestling - Bronze

Sunday 5 August 2012

Sensible Political Decisions

The last week of July saw some sensible political decisions in the infrastructure arena.
There is no doubt that availability of land, that also in time, is one of the most cited reasons by the project promoters for the delayed off take of projects in India. The recent step taken by the Indian government to do away with the Cabinet Committee permission for transfer of government owned land for public-private-partnership (PPP) projects is expected to expedite the project implementation by a minimum of six months. As per the new guidelines land transfer from Central ministries to statutory bodies or public sector undertakings will now be outside the purview of Cabinet clearance.

Though Uttar Pradesh government has been identified as one of the erring states which plunged 19 Indian states into darkness by drawing more than allotted power, last week the government took some fruitful decisions also. First, the UP chief minister laid the foundation stone for the Rs 2,770 crore road project being set up by SEW Infrastructure.  The BOT project seeks to take up four laning work of the 206-km stretch between the Delhi–Saharanpur section. 

To top it the chief minister has agreed to inaugurate the six laned access-controlled Yamuna Expressway on 9 August 2012. The 165 km expressway was awarded and built during the BSP government regime. The expressway built at a cost of Rs 14,000 crore is expected to reduce the travel time between Agra and Greater Noida from four hours to around one-and-half hours.

Quote of the week

“The situation looks challenging, no doubt, but we simply have to get accustomed to dealing with these headwinds. What gives us hope is that the Indian consumer is aspiring for a better life,” Nitin Paranjpe, CEO & MD, Hindustan Uniliver Ltd.

Sunday 29 July 2012

389 MoUs but only 40 projects!

Post economic liberalisation, major states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, etc have arranged global investors meet on a regular basis. Hundreds of MoUs are signed during this melas. These kind of melas, as observed by me over the years, have failed to materialise the investment the host governments were looking for.

A recent study on the MoUs signed by the Karnataka government in its 2010 Global Investors meet has proved the above point. The follow up study indicates that of the 389 MoUs signed during the meet only 40 projects have been implemented so far. This indicates a PF (Project Fructification) ratio of 1:10!

The 389 MoUs were expected to bring in fresh investment of Rs 3,92,000 crore and generate lakhs of employment opportunities. Instead after two years, what the state got was just 40 projects worth Rs 21,178 crore.

Unabated by this failure, this year in June 2012, the state government signed over 730 MoUs worth Rs 7,60,000 crore in the two day Global Investors Meet. Only time will tell how much of these MoUs will fructify into projects.

Sunday 22 July 2012

Government responding to Investors sentiments

From the projex (project investment) point of view, the decision of the Indian government to set up a a project clearance board chaired by the Cabinet secretary, for review and issue of one-time clearances for infrastructure projects was a right step. Hope the role of the board will not be limited only to clearing the projects but also ensuring that bulk of the cleared projects are implemented with the the stipulated time schedule. Otherwise, eventually the role of the Board will get reduced to that of Board of Approval (BoA), which after clearing nearly 600 SEZs, now meets occassionally to grant an extension of time period for execution of a SEZ or to accept the surrender of SEZ proposals cleared earlier.

The domestic manufacturers of power equipment are happy with the decision of the Indian government to impose 21 per cent duty on imports of power equipment. However, the million dollar (yuan) question is whether the domestic suppliers will be able to meet the requirement of power project promoters in time? Power project promoters have cautioned that costlier imported equipment will certainly push up electricity tariffs.

During the week (15 July to 21 July 2012) in the manufacturing sector, major projex news emanated from the refinery, aluminium and automobile sectors.

With IOC agreeing to come on board, HPCL has decided to take up a nine million tpa greenfield refinery at Barmar in Rajasthan. The refinery has a long history. ONGC, which proposed to set up the refinery in 2005, but the Rajasthan government’s un-investor friendly fiscal policies made ONGC to abandon its proposal. 

While Bharat Aluminium Company (BALCO) is facing land hurdle in Chhattisgarh in the form of a petition filed in the court seeking investigation into the land given to the company by the Chhattisgarh Government allegedly at a very low price, NALCO plans to expand its capacity by acquiring a stake in Indonesia’s Ashan Aluminum (Inalum) at a sum of Rs 8,000 crore.

Despite falling demand for automobile projects in the domestic markets, the automobile companies have not stopped their capacity expansion plans. Further, India continues to attract foreign auto majors even at this juncture.

The UK based Triumph Motorcycles has reportedly sought land for its proposed Rs 850 crore projex proposal. An MoU for the new plant with an initial capacity of 2.5 lakh motorcycles per annum was signed in the recently concluded global investors’ meet (GIM 2012). The proposed manufacturing plant would be operational by 2015. With the state government grappling with the political turmoil currently, the project is certain to take some time to take off.

Isuzu Motors is planning to set up a green field manufacturing unit in India. The company will invest over Rs 1,000 crore for venturing into India's small commercial vehicle and multi-utility vehicle segment. Isuzu is currently negotiating with the Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat government for locating its new factory.

Ford India has augmented the diesel engine production capacity at its plant in Maraimalainagar, near Chennai. The plant can now produce 3.4 lakh engines a year – up from 2.5 lakh. It can also make two lakh cars annually.

800 MW added to India’s generation capacity

During the week, Tata Power completed the Unit II (800 MW) of its Mundra ultra mega power project (UMPP) in Gujarat. Unit I was commissioned in March 2012. According to the company sources, the thermal power generation capacity of the company now stands at 5,247 MW. If one adds the hydro, wind and solar capacity of 852 MW, the total generation capacity of Tatas adds up to 6,099 MW.

In the Nuclear power sector, after the commissioning of the Kudankulam projects (phase 1), the Indian government has signed signed a protocol with the Russian Federation, on 17 July 2012 for funding two new units at the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project in Tamil Nadu. The total cost of the project is estimated at Rs 32,000 crore. 

Three airport projects are on the verge of completion

After a long pause, we are hearing some good news from the aviation infrastructure sector, On 17 July 2012, Arjun Munda, Chief Minister of Jharkhand laid the foundation stone for construction of an international airport at Deoghar at a cost of Rs 350 crore. The airport will be built on a 675-acre plot by 2014.  

The modernised Chennai airport is waiting for our Prime Minister to dedicate the project to the nation. The Rs 2,015 crore (Initial cost Rs 1,808 crore) modernisation was handled by the state owned Airport Authority of India. The project scope included construction of a new domestic terminal building, extension of the existing Anna international terminal and building a new runway across the Adyar River. The passenger handling capacity of the Chennai airport has now shot up from 9 million to 23 million per annum. 

While the air cargo complex at Mangalore airport, built by the Airports Authority of India, is likely to be commissioned soon, the modernised Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose airport at Kolkatta is expected to become operational for domestic airlines from October 2012. The trial run of the new terminal, whch has a capacity to handle 54,000 passengers per day, was conducted on 15 July 2012 by the Airport Authority of India.

In the Surface transport infrastructure sector, the Punjab government approved the Rs 10,300 crore Ludhiana Metro project on 17 July 2012. The two corridors metro with a total length of 29 km will be implemented in five years through a SPV, to be set up shortly by the state government.

The Public-Private Partnership Appraisal Committee (PPPAC) cleared 8 new road projects entailing a total investment of Rs 8,356 crore. These projects will now go for financial bidding. Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Jammu & Kashmir are the beneficiary states.
 
Quote of the week
 
"Foreign politicians and magazines are merely mirroring what many Indian critics have been saying for years. If you do not like the image that you see in the mirror, do not blame the mirror. Blame yourself" - Swaminathan S Ankleshwar Aiyar (ET 18-07-2012)

Monday 16 July 2012

Fresh Projex: Animal Spirit Invisible

Fresh investment in June 2012

Absence of big ticket projects indicated the missing animal spirit in the Indian projex arena. The month, June 2012 was not much different from May 2012 in terms of startup projex. According to ProjectsToday.com in all the month saw a total of 653 start-ups worth Rs 32,225 crore, as against 606 startups worth Rs 37,752 crore during May 2012.

The Manufacturing sector, which is performing awfully below its potential for the last couple of years, accounted for almost 45 per cent share in the total investment announced during the month. The sector attracted 96 projects worth Rs 14,453 crore. A Rs 6,000 crore, one million tpa capacity fertiliser project of Nuziveedu Seeds in Tripura and a couple of cement projects (Rs 2,500 crore of projex) accounted for bulk of the fresh projex in this sector.

The infrastructure segment attracted 490 start ups (Total projex: Rs 11,715 crore). However, of the 490 projects only a couple were of mega size and these were owned by government agencies. This included, Delhi-Chandigarh Expressway Project of NHAI and a proposal of Gujarat Maritime Board to develop a shipyard with a capacity of 15,000 DWT at Dahej in Bharuch district of Gujarat.

Of the 35 new power projects were announced in June 2012, non were of mega size. Among the new power projects, the two notable projects announced by Beta Wind Farm were: a Rs 965 crore power project (156 MW) in Tirunelveli district of Tamil Nadu and a Rs 588 crore  project (95 MW) in Anantapur district of Andhra Pradesh.


With Reserve Bank of India, reluctant to reduce the interest rates and the government not able to pep up the investment environment, the lull period in fresh projex is expected to remain for atleast another couple of months.

Projex: project expenditure or capital expenditure.
ProjectsToday.com is a Mumbai based research outfit which monitors over 45,000 projects across major sectors in India.
One crore = Ten million